🔗 Share this article

As global leaders assemble in Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is vital to assess how we are faring together in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite 30 years of United Nations climate conferences, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released since 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which verified the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political agendas. Regardless of sincere attempts, the world is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Latest figures indicate that CO₂ concentrations reached a new peak of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year jumping by the largest yearly increase since record-keeping started in 1957. According to the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in last year originated from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% resulted from alterations in land use such as deforestation and wildfires.

Although the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in recent times was propelled by higher use of gas and oil—accounting for over half of worldwide discharges—coal burning also reached a record high, constituting 41%. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake calling for nations to move beyond fossil fuels, collective plans still aim to produce more than double the amount of hydrocarbons in 2030 than aligns with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with ongoing drilling of natural gas justified as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Rather than focusing on economic incentives to speed up the phase-out of fossil fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feelgood eco-positive approaches that aim to cancel out CO2 output by afforestation rather than reducing industrial emissions. Although protecting, enlarging, and restoring natural carbon sinks like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, studies has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions alone.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory bigger than the United States of America—is needed to meet net zero pledges. More than 40% of this land would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by the year 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Even if this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests require years to grow and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a fast or lasting CO2 retention method, especially in a rapidly shifting climate. While severe temperatures and aridity engulf more of the planet, these sincere attempts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Diminishing of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence tells us that about 50% of the carbon dioxide released each year stays in the air, while the remainder is absorbed by oceans and land ecosystems. As the planet warms, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, meaning that more carbon accumulates in the air, intensifying global warming. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the land sector effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the urgency to cut pollution in the near future.

The Carbon Debt and Future Generations

Achieving net zero by 2050 requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently depends largely on terrestrial methods to absorb excess carbon from the atmosphere. Emitting companies can simply buy carbon credits to compensate for their emissions and continue with normal operations. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance resulting from the combustion of hydrocarbons keeps on further disrupt the global climate system. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To limit the magnitude and length of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to surpass the balancing impact of net zero and start to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

Based on the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. More generous industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the political distortion of carbon neutrality is an insidious loophole that distracts from the scientific imperative to eliminate the primary cause of our overheating planet—fossil fuels.

The Critical Requirement for Concrete Action

Although this scientific reality should lead talks at Cop30, history indicates that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will prevail. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will continue to delay the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until leaders are brave enough to put a price on carbon to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are releasing more and more carbon to the air, worsening the physical catastrophe currently happening all around us.

The challenge we face is simple: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or suffer the results of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.