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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."